The Calming Effect of Central Banks
EUROPE is hitting another rough patch. But this time, the troubles have
barely rattled world financial markets. That’s a huge change.
Even though events in the United States precipitated some of the most
acute stages of the 2007-8 financial crisis — the Lehman Brothers
collapse is a prime example — the crisis in Europe has been the fulcrum
on which world markets have pivoted over the last couple of years.
“We’ve seen world markets trade in unison to an astonishing degree,”
said Stacy Williams, an HSBC strategist in London, in a telephone
conversation last week. “Worries about the risk of a meltdown in Europe
have been the main factor in the risk-on, risk-off phenomenon.” Global
markets are tightly synchronized, he said, and they are still moving up
and down primarily in reaction to short-term risk assessments.
For the moment, however, they haven’t responded dramatically to events
in Europe, one way or another. It’s as if traders can’t decide whether
to add to their bets or head for the exits. For now, at least, markets
are moving sideways.
It’s not as if the European economy is suddenly flourishing. To the contrary. Government statistics released in London last week, for example, suggested that Britain’s fiscal austerity program has helped to plunge that country back into recession. While there are pockets of prosperity, the economy of the European Union as a whole contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to Eurostat. Many forecasters believe that a recession in the region is under way.
Economic pain and fiscal austerity led to the fall of the Dutch
government last week, and are threatening the chances of Nicolas
Sarkozy, the French president, in next weekend’s runoff against François
Hollande, the Socialist candidate. Sovereign bond yields in Spain,
which finds itself at the heart of the euro zone crisis, are testing the
6 percent level, a sure sign of serious trouble. Bailouts are already
under way in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, while Italy remains in a
precarious state.
But how have world markets reacted to all this? With a sigh and a
collective shrug. Stocks rose last week in London, Paris and Frankfurt,
and with the help of reassuring comments from the Federal Reserve, they did in New York as well.
Larry Kantor, head of research for Barclays, said the European Central Bank
is largely responsible for the benign market response to Europe’s
latest troubles. Through March, he said, the central bank has injected
1.153 trillion euros, approximately $1.52 trillion, into the European
banking system, and much of that money has been used to buy sovereign
debt, driving down yields and reducing some pressure on embattled
governments and on the region’s broader economy.
“In November there was the risk of a real credit freeze,” Mr. Kantor said. Lack of bank lending actually “tipped the euro
area into recession,” he said. “The injection by the E.C.B. was very
important, and it really takes a lot of that disaster scenario off the
table.”
He said that Europe would be struggling to resolve its financial
problems for years, but that the “pragmatic” approach of the European
Central Bank under its new president, Mario Draghi, has given the markets much comfort.
“For the short term, at least,” he said, “much of the tail risk has been removed.”
NONE of which is to minimize the fundamental challenges ahead for
Europe, where frictions are mounting over the wisdom of the prevailing
orthodoxy of fiscal austerity aimed at bringing down government debt
loads.
In France, Mr. Hollande favors including a more Keynesian solution,
involving government stimulus aimed at promoting growth and government
revenue. Mr. Draghi, who has been firmly in the austerity camp, last
week shifted his rhetoric modestly, calling for a “growth compact” in
parallel with the European Union’s fiscal treaty, which limits budget
deficits and national debt.
“We need to actively step up our reflections about the longer-term
vision for Europe as we have done in the past at other defining moments
in the history of our union,” Mr. Draghi told members of the European
Parliament in Brussels. But he made it clear that he envisioned
“structural reforms” intended to make European economies more
competitive, rather than greater government spending. That is an
approach that Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, also favors.
The United States faces similar issues, of course, but its economy,
while hardly robust, is now growing more rapidly than most of Europe’s.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the
first quarter, according to Commerce Department figures released on
Friday. That’s less than Wall Street had expected.
The economy is weak enough that Fed policy makers on Wednesday
reiterated their commitment to hold short-term interest rates, now near
zero, at “exceptionally low levels” for an extended period. They didn’t
embark on any new unorthodox programs to stimulate the economy, but
according to Barclays calculations, the Fed’s various quantitative easing efforts expanded its balance sheet by $2.35 trillion.
These balance-sheet operations, on top of the rock-bottom interest
rates, have had an extremely stimulative effect, amounting to the
theoretical equivalent of a Fed benchmark interest rate of approximately
negative 4 percent, according to Thomas Lam, an economist at the
OSK-DMG Group in Singapore.
Clearly, Fed policy makers remain on high alert, although their
assessment of the domestic economy was slightly more upbeat than their
previous forecast, in January. On average, they predicted last week that
G.D.P.
would grow 2.65 percent in 2012, an increase of 0.2 percentage point
from their January estimate. The inflation rate will remain under the
Fed’s target of 2 percent for the year, they estimated, and the
unemployment rate will drop slightly, to 7.9 percent from its current
8.2 percent, according to Fed figures compiled by UBS Investment
Research.
In a news conference on Wednesday, Ben S. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, said the central bank “will not hesitate”
to take further action as needed to support the economy. Mr. Kantor
said the markets might view that promise as “a kind of extension of the
Bernanke put” — a guarantee of intervention should data deteriorate
sharply — which should give traders some solace.
With election campaigns under way in the United States as well as in
Europe, major new economic initiatives are unlikely for now, whether
they amount to fiscal austerity or fiscal stimulus. If the markets
remain calm in the interim, it may be mainly thanks to the influence of
the central banks.
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