EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

The breach of 1.2 earlier this month proved to be just temporary. EUR/CHF stayed in tight range last week. The flag like price actions suggest that another fall could be seen. But still we'd still expect that SNB will defend 1.2 floor with "utmost determination". Hence, any downside attempt should be contained there. Nonetheless, there is no scope for a sustainable rebound yet. Such rebound should be driven by speculation of raising the 1.2 floor and we believe such speculation wouldn't be revived before confirming the next SNB president.

In the long term picture,after SNB intervention, the long term down trend in EUR/CHF is put into a halt at 1.0061. While the whole rebound from 1.0061 was strong, there is no scope of trend reversal yet. And, we'd expect strong resistance inside 1.2399/3243 resistance zone to limit upside unless there is a drastic turn in risk sentiments. But in any case, downside should be contained by 1.2, the floor set by SNB.